Democrats Counting Their Chickens Before They’re Hatched…

Just a little note for the Democrats and the media, you’re drinking a little too much of your own bathwater right now. Bush’s press coverage has been as bad as it gets for about two months now, I’m hearing about how conservatives are divided, Bush’s approval numbers are lower that ever and the left is so confident that they’re writing articles like this…

Bush can’t win this election now. Kerry can only lose it
Six months out — The presidential race is a dead heat. Is it Kerry’s to lose?

But, if we examine the number in more detail,they tell a different story.

Remember that Bush won in 2000, 271-267. Since then, the Bush states added +7 electoral votes and the states Gore carried in 2000 lost 7 electoral votes. So, if their were no changes from the 2000 election, we’d be at Bush 278 electoral votes and Kerry at 260.

Now, according to the Real Clear Politics Battleground States Polling Data, here are the states that have changed hands according to the latest polls (Arkansas which was a tie, was not counted)….

Kerry Adds
Ohio: +20
New Hampshire: +4

Bush Adds
Michigan: +17
Oregon: +7
New Mexico: +5

Note, that if the election were today, not only would Bush win again, he’d win by a larger margin. Bush also has much more money, a later convention, the situation in Iraq has already improved significantly from last month, and polling data shows voters are dramatically underestimating how good the economy is.

While I certainly wouldn’t suggest that Republicans get overconfident, Bush, not Kerry, is in the stronger position right now…

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