Final State-by-State Senate Race Analysis

State: Michigan
Seat Currently Held By: Debbie Stabenow (D)
Competitors: Debbie Stabenow (D) vs. Mike Bouchard (R)
Last Poll: Detroit News — Stabenow +13
Latest RCP poll spread: Stabenow +16
October Polling: Stabenow wins 18, Bouchard wins 0.
My Analysis: 90/10 — Likely Democratic Retention.

State: Minnesota
Seat Currently Held By: Mark Dayton (D)
Competitors: Mark Kennedy (R) vs, Amy Klobuchar (D)
Last Poll: Rasmussen — Klobuchar + 14.
Latest RCP poll spread: Klobuchar +15.3
October Polling: Klobuchar wins 10, Kennedy wins 0.
My Analysis: 90/10 — Likely Democratic Retention.

State: New Jersey
Seat Currently Held By: Robert Menendez (D)
Competitors: Robert Menendez (D) vs. Tom Kean (R)
Last Poll: Marist — Menendez + 8
Latest RCP poll spread: Menendez +6
October Polling: Menendez wins 18, 1 tie, Kean wins 2.
My Analysis: 90/10 — Likely Democratic Retention.

State: Ohio
Seat Currently Held By: Mike DeWine (R)
Competitors: Mike DeWine (R) vs. Sherrod Brown (D)
Last Poll: Mason-Dixon — Brown +6
Latest RCP poll spread: Brown +7.7
October Polling: Brown wins 16, 1 tie, DeWine wins 0.
My Analysis: 90/10 — Likely Democratic Pick-up.

State: Pennsylvania
Seat Currently Held By: Rick Santorum (R)
Competitors: Rick Santorum (R) vs. Bob Casey
Last Poll: Mason Dixon — Casey +13
Latest RCP poll spread: Casey +11.5
October Polling: Casey wins 17 — Santorum wins 0
My Analysis: 90/10: — Likely Democrat Pick-Up.

State: Tennessee
Seat Currently Held By: Bill Frist (R)
Competitors: Bob Corker (R) vs. Harold Ford
Last Poll: Rasmussen — Corker +4
Latest RCP poll spread: Corker +8.5
October Polling: Corker wins 12, 2 ties, Ford wins 5.
My Analysis: 90/10 — Likely Republican Retention.

State: Connecticut
Seat Currently Held By: Joe Lieberman (D)
Competitors: Joe Lieberman (I) vs. Ned Lamont
Last Poll: Quinnipiac — Lieberman +12
Latest RCP poll spread: Lieberman +11.8
October Polling: Lieberman wins 14. Lamont wins 0.
My Analysis: 90/10 — Lieberman retains and unfortunately, votes for Democratic control of Congress.

State: Washington
Seat Currently Held By: Maria Cantwell (D)
Competitors: Maria Cantwell (D) vs. Mike McGavick (R)
Last Poll: Mason-Dixon — Cantwell +16
Latest RCP poll spread: Cantwell +13.3
October Polling: Cantwell wins 11, MCGavick wins 0.
My Analysis: 90/10 — Likely Democratic Retention.

State: Maryland
Seat Currently Held By: Paul Sarbanes (D)
Competitors: Michael Steele (R) vs. Ben Cardin (D)
Last Poll: Mason-Dixon — Cardin +3
Latest RCP poll spread: Cardin +3.5
October Polling: Cardin wins 14, 2 ties, Steele wins 0.
My Analysis: 75/25 — Leaning Democratic Retention.

State: Missouri
Seat Currently Held By: Jim Talent (R)
Competitors: Jim Talent (R) vs. Claire McCaskill (D)
Last Poll: Mason-Dixon — McCaskill +1
Latest RCP poll spread: McCaskill +1.6
October Polling: Talent wins 7, 2 ties, McCaskill wins 10.
My Analysis: 50/50 — Toss-up.

State: Montana
Seat Currently Held By: Conrad Burns (R)
Competitors: Conrad Burns (R) vs. Jon Tester (D)
Last Poll: Rasmussen — Tester +2.0
Latest RCP poll spread: Tester +1.0
October Polling: Tester wins 10, 1 tie, Burns wins 0.
My Analysis: 50/50 — Toss-up.

State: Rhode Island
Seat Currently Held By: Lincoln Chafee (R)
Competitors: Lincoln Chafee (R) vs. Sheldon Whitehouse (D)
Last Poll: Mason Dixon: Chafee + 1
Latest RCP poll spread: Whitehouse +7.8
October Polling: Whitehouse wins 8, Chafee wins 1
My Analysis: 50/50 — Toss-up.

State: Virginia
Seat Currently Held By: George Allen (R)
Competitors: George Allen (R) vs. James Webb (D)
Last Poll: Mason-Dixon — Webb +1
Latest RCP poll spread: Webb +0.6
October Polling: Webb wins 7, 1 tie, Allen wins 10.
My Analysis: 50/50 — Toss-up.

Final Analysis: The Democrats should pick up 2-6 seats, with the most likely number of pick-ups being 5 (which would mean that the GOP keeps control of the Senate). The key races to watch are Rhode Island, Missouri, Virginia, and Montana. Control of the Senate should swing on those four races and the Dems need to win all 4 to take control which would be difficult, but not impossible. If I absolutely had to make a pick in all four toss-up races, I’d say that the Democrat has a small edge in every one.

Hat tip to Real Clear Politics for the polling data.

Update #1: A change was made to a race on the list after it went live. Rhode Island was changed from leaning Democratic to toss-up.

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