The Conventional Wisdom About Another Nail Biter In 2004 Looks To Be Right So Far

12 May, 2004 by John Hawkins

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I spent time today comparing state polls done in the last three weeks or so to the final results in 2000 election. I know, I know, it’s still really early, a lot of people aren’t paying attention yet, all the states haven’t been polled, etc.

That being said, it was quite interesting to note how little seems to have changed since the 2000 election. Here’s a little breakdown for you using data compiled from month old or less Real Clear Politics 2004 Presidential Race Battleground State Match Ups…

Bush To Kerry States
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New Hampshire (4 Electoral Votes) — Bush +1 in 2000 — Kerry +4 in 2004

Gore To Bush States
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Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes) — Gore by <1 in 2000 -- Bush +12 in 2004 / Kerry +4 (depending on which poll you believe)

Ties
—–
Pennsylvania (21 Electoral Votes) — Gore +5 in 2000
Oregon (7 Electoral Votes) — Gore +1 in 2000
Arkansas (6 Electoral Votes) — Bush +5 in 2000

Still Within Striking Distance
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Florida (27 Electoral Votes) — Bush by <1 in 2000 -- Bush +1 in 2004
Michigan (17 Electoral Votes) — Gore +5 points in 2000 — Kerry +4 in 2004
Iowa (7 Electoral Votes) — Gore +1 in 2000 — Kerry +1 in 2004

In Play?
———-
California (55 Electoral Votes) — Gore +11 — Kerry +1
New Jersey (15 Electoral Votes) — Gore +16 — Kerry +6

Also, keep in mind that there have been electoral vote changes since 2000. The states won by Gore lost 7 electoral votes & the Bush states added 7. In what has to still be called a dogifght at this point, that could be enough to make the difference. But, in any case, it’s still a wide open election at election at this point…