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The Goracle’s Crystal Ball Lets Him Down Yet Again
Written By : William Teach

So sad. The Times of London catches Al Gore making it up as he goes along. Not that this is anything unusual for Gore. His movie is full of lies and distortions and made up “facts.” He recently claimed the interior of the Earth was several million degrees. He is actually being sued by 30,000 scientists for global warming lies. However, let’s not forget his famous quote

“In the United States of America, unfortunately we still live in a bubble of unreality. And the Category 5 denial is an enormous obstacle to any discussion of solutions. Nobody is interested in solutions if they don’t think there’s a problem. Given that starting point, I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous (global warming) is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are, and how hopeful it is that we are going to solve this crisis.”

In other words, lying is fine. Therefore we get lies. In the past, though, the media was loathe to call him out. Lately, the media has been more and more willing to expose the lies, hence

There are many kinds of truth. Al Gore was poleaxed by an inconvenient one yesterday.

The former US Vice-President, who became an unlikely figurehead for the green movement after narrating the Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth, became entangled in a new climate change “spin” row.

Mr Gore, speaking at the Copenhagen climate change summit, stated the latest research showed that the Arctic could be completely ice-free in five years.

In his speech, Mr Gore told the conference: “These figures are fresh. Some of the models suggest to Dr [Wieslav] Maslowski that there is a 75 per cent chance that the entire north polar ice cap, during the summer months, could be completely ice-free within five to seven years.”

But, see, there was a problem

However, the climatologist whose work Mr Gore was relying upon dropped the former Vice-President in the water with an icy blast.

“It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at,” Dr Maslowski said. “I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this.”

Let the spin begin!

Mr Gore’s office later admitted that the 75 per cent figure was one used by Dr Maslowksi as a “ballpark figure” several years ago in a conversation with Mr Gore.

A “conversation.” So, not actual proof, and Dr. Maslowski probably wouldn’t even remember the conversation, but

Dr Maslowki, who works at the US Naval Postgraduate School in California, said that his latest results give a six-year projection for the melting of 80 per cent of the ice, but he said he expects some ice to remain beyond 2020.

He added: “I was very explicit that we were talking about near-ice-free conditions and not completely ice-free conditions in the northern ocean. I would never try to estimate likelihood at anything as exact as this,” he said. “It’s unclear to me how this figure was arrived at, based on the information I provided to Al Gore’s office.”

Hmmm, care to go for Spin #2, Al? And you have to love the photo the Times of London used to headline the article.

Meanwhile, there is more violence continuing in the streets of Copenhagen by the climate change protesters.

Also, TFMo forwarded me a link this morning which contains 500 peer reviewed papers supporting skepticism. I’m going to start working my way through them.

Crossed at Pirate’s Cove

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  • http://conservativebootcamp.com martinhale

    Climate Depot is now reporting that both sides in this debate – Gore and Maslowski, are leveling accusations of inaccuracy against one another. Gore was citing a handout brochure which was published by the Danish Climate Centre in which Dr. Maslowski is quoted. The cite from the brochure is:

    “Projecting the trend into the future indicates that autumn could become near ice free between 2011 and 2016 (Maslowski, 2009).”

    The most recent update at Climate Depot is that Dr. Maslowski is arguing semantics with Mr. Gore – “ice-free” vs “near ice-free”.

    So, on the one hand, we have a former politician who’s a non-scientist who’s never felt too terribly constrained by the actual facts of the matter, and a scientist who’s claimed something and produced computer models to back up his claims and who’s now wildly claiming he never claimed what he claimed.

    This is exactly what happens when facts become secondary and politics and emotion take over. We don’t get a straight answer from anyone, and the world is left stupider for it. With leaders like these, who needs to fear Al-Qaeda/Hamas/Hizbollah and their ilk? We have our own internal terrorists doing far more damage while claiming to be trying to save us.

    Screw the lot of them.

  • Mike_M

    “a scientist who’s claimed something and produced computer models to back up his claims and who’s now wildly claiming he never claimed what he claimed”

    Mind you we’re talking about a computer model here, which should not be mistaken for a scientific fact in any circumstance.

    Grand Theft Auto 4 has a weather algorithm that is likely to be as accurate as whatever fiction is spilling from these climate supercomputers.

  • abcxyz

    Posted by Mike_M
    2009-12-15 11:32:02

    What’s worse is that the weather models try to take into account everything and its possible rate of increase to forecast the future temperature. However, none of the models have yet figured out, how to take into account the effects of clouds.

    I think the GTA may be more accurate.

  • William Teach

    I’ve talked to meteorologists around here in Raleigh, and they will often say that predicting the weather is as much educated guesses as science. There are so many things to take into account for a 5,7, or 10 day forecast, and they do not even take into account things like the solar flux, El Nino, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, what it is like in the Southern Hemisphere, etc. The models are more simplistic, though, often still complicated. And, they will admit that what can happen even a few days out can change in a heartbeat.

    And a 15 day forecast? Good luck with that. Looking at Accuweather on Sunday, they were calling for icy conditions on the 24th and 26th in the am, with rain those two days and the 25th, and it would be chilly. Now, 53 and partly cloudy on the 24th, rainy and 62 on the 25th, and 45 and partly cloudy on the 26th. Yet, the climate alarmists want to tell us they know what will happen in 50 to 100 years? Good luck with that.

    Just for reference and honesty, and take the word of those who say we are going into a cooler period for the next 30 years or so with a box of salt, too.

  • http://quantum-kitty.blogspot.com/ simulacre

    Just for reference and honesty, and take the word of those who say we are going into a cooler period for the next 30 years or so with a box of salt, too.

    Though with the sunspot activity and historical cooling cycles neatly matching up, there is arguably more evidence to support a general cooling trend than there is to support ‘continued, catastrophic warming.’

  • Mike_M

    “I think the GTA may be more accurate.”

    We may be onto something here. With the hookers, limos, extortion schemes, and piles of other people’s cash, the AGW crowd would probably be more likely to see it as an accurate simulation of their world.

    GTA 5: Copenhagen. Who wouldn’t be surprised to see a limo rocking in a back alley, then a digital Bill Clinton step out for the next round of meetings?

  • http://conservativebootcamp.com martinhale

    Mind you we’re talking about a computer model here, which should not be mistaken for a scientific fact in any circumstance.

    Once, for a project I was handling, I needed to create a model of inflation over a forty-year period. I didn’t want to do a simple linear model in which inflation rose by a fixed amount every year in the model, so I dug back into my early maths training and got creative. I ended up using the tangent of the year/10, which I then further transformed by taking the cosine of the resulting number. If half that number was below a certain threshold, I then inserted a default inflation figure, if it was above the first threshold but above a second threshold, I used the number divided by two, otherwise I used half the number divided that by 10. Doing all of that produced a range of numbers which could be used as inflation percentages. It was all very interesting and the model produced what could easily be mistaken for actual inflation figures.

    Except it was all pure, abstract mathematically produced fiction.

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