So: if Obama made up the whole “we got bin Laden” story to boost his poll numbers — and I’m not saying he did, but if he did…

then it didn’t work:

President Obama received little boost from the Navy SEALs killing of bin Laden.

Some numbers:

  • Gallup: 6 points (46% to 52%);
  • Rasmussen: no bounce (49%);
  • Quinnipiac: 6 points (46% to 52%);
  • CNN: 4 points (48% to 52%).

The “bounce” was bigger if the poll asked specifically about terror or Afghanistan, but had no legs on other issues. And:

…what bump there is probably will not last. According to Gallup, President Bush received a 7 point bump when Saddam Hussein was captured, but that gain evaporated in less than a month. Worse for Obama, according to Quinnipiac, his re-elect among independents actually went down.

We at The Trog have long believed bin Laden to be dead — long dead, likely as a result of a large, Marine-induced explosion somewhere in northern Afghanistan. Thus, when I read something like:

Senior Pakistani security officials said Osama bin Laden’s daughter had confirmed her father was captured alive and shot dead by the US Special Forces during the first few minutes of the operation carried out at the huge compound in Bilal Town, Abbottabad.

Or:

Al Qaeda released a statement on jihadist forums Friday confirming the death of its leader, Osama bin Laden, according to SITE Intelligence Group, which monitors Islamist websites.

When I read that, I’m more convinced that bin Laden is dead. I’m not convinced that he’s recently dead. These statements could simply be people close to the situation trying to preserve their closeness to the situation — protecting their share of the inheritance, maybe, or their place in the existing power structure.

Thus, my point stands: the appropriate controversy isn’t that bin Laden is still alive, but that he was already dead and President Obama staged bin Laden’s death at this moment in history in order to boost his — Obama’s — poll numbers. And I’ll stick with that until I’m no longer receiving traffic from the “bin Laden dead conspiracy” google bomb.

Kind of premature, really: he’d have been better off waiting until…oh, say next September or October. But still.

And now we see that it didn’t work anyway. So at least Obama’s consistent.

Previously:

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