One Poll That Shows How Cancerous Obamacare Has Become To Democrats

One of the most irritating things that occurred after the shutdown was the notion that the Democrats got a huge boost before the 2014 midterms. : This ludicrous claim was reported by CNN, Mediaite, Huffington [re]Post, and the Washington Post to name a few. : What’s more ridiculous is that the PPP poll, which some news outlets cited, was conducted on behalf of! : Well, that’s not the case. : It was never the case. : Mitt Romney won more congressional districts — 227— : than Obama in 2012. : Additionally, there were few competitive races in the House from the beginning. : Now, Republicans are favored on the congressional ballot in what Charlie Cook described as, “one of the most dramatic shifts I’ve ever seen in 40 years of involvement in politics.”

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In Cook’s December 5 analysis, he says:

Sure enough, the Democratic numbers in the generic ballot began to pull dramatically ahead, resembling a steep ascent up the side of a mountain, ending about 7 points ahead of Republicans, 45 percent to 38 percent–an advantage that, were it to last until the election, would give Democrats a chance to recapture the House.

Then, in mid-October, the focus shifted from the government-shutdown fiasco to a different debacle, this time a Democratic disaster: the botched launch of the Obamacare website and subsequent implementation problems of the health care law, including termination notices going out to many people who had insurance coverage. The Democratic numbers from the generic-ballot test dropped from 45 percent to 37 percent, and Republicans moved up to 40 percent. This 10-point net shift from a Democratic advantage of 7 points to a GOP edge of 3 points in just over a month is breathtaking, perhaps an unprecedented swing in such a short period. Occurring around Election Day, such a shift would probably amount to the difference between Democrats picking up at least 10 House seats, possibly even the 17 needed for a majority, and instead losing a half-dozen or so seats.

Yet, let’s no crack open the champagne bottles just yet. : November 2014 is A LONG WAYS AWAY, which means plenty of opportunities for Republicans to blow it. : Additionally, generic ballots aren’t the best indicators for election results. : Cook touched on this point as well.

Of course, with the election 11 months away, it’s too early to get really excited about this turnabout, but it demonstrates the volatility we are seeing these days in American politics. It must also give Democrats a sense of déjà vu, back to when the bottom fell out for them during the 2009-10 fight over passage of the Affordable Care Act. In that case, though, they suffered a gradual decline in party fortunes, starting in the summer of 2009 and culminating in the loss of 63 seats and the House majority in November 2010–the biggest drop in House seats for either party since 1948 and the largest in a midterm election since 1938. Democrats didn’t fare much better in the Senate, losing six seats.

No one knows for sure how the next few phases of ACA implementation will go. Democrats’ hopes that their fortunes will improve as a result of upcoming fiscal debates are starting to look pretty shaky, however. Democrats may be counting on Republicans to engage in more self-destructive behavior when government funding expires in mid-January and the debt ceiling expires in February.

Then again, if the website continues to be a disaster, then the focus could easily drift back to the shortfall of the president’s new health care law. : Republicans need to be smart during the next line of fiscal talks since they have a huge pool to conduct voter outreach for the upcoming midterms; the: millions of Americans losing their health insurance and who are furious about it

Our base plus millions of voters angry over the loss of their insurance means a landslide win for Republicans.

At the same time, even if the website becomes somewhat functional : — those millions who have already lost their insurance won’t get it back even with the president’s odd declaration that he’s unilaterally stopping cancellation notices. : Nothing is definite, but 2014 could be a very good year for conservatives.

See also: 5 Scandalous Obamacare Horror Stories

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