A “Take Murtha’s Seat” Moneybomb

The biggest race in America next month is going be Tim Burns (R) vs. Mark Critz (D) for “John Murtha’s seat.” Burns is a solid conservative who’s come out in favor of repealing Obama’s health care reform.

It’s also worth noting that he’s winning. The latest numbers from Public Policy Polling look good:

Buoyed by an electorate that is exceptionally sour on national Democrats, Republican Tim Burns has a 44-41 lead over Democrat Mark Critz in the special election to replace John Murtha in the House.

…Tipping the balance in a race where each candidate is pretty well liked may be the way voters in the district feel about a number of key Democrats- Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, Arlen Specter, and Ed Rendell are all exceptionally unpopular. Obama’s approval rating is just 33% to 57% disapproving, only 24% have a favorable opinion of Pelosi to 64% with an unfavorable one, 28% of voters approve of Specter to 60% who don’t, and 24% give Rendell good marks to 63% unhappy with him. Those aren’t the sorts of reviews that bode well for the district electing another Democratic politician.

…Republicans have the enthusiasm on their side in this race as well. 57% of GOP voters say that they are ‘very excited’ about voting in the special election while just 38% of Democrats express that sentiment. There’s been some speculation that more closely contested primaries on the Democratic side for Senator and Governor might give the party a turnout edge but that will more than likely be evened out by Republicans being more excited about the special election.

We find a likely electorate that voted for John McCain by seven points in 2008, in contrast to his single point victory in the district. That six point shift in a Republican direction is consistent with what we found for the electorate in the Massachusetts Senate election in January, but it shows Critz could make this even closer by getting Democratic voters out to the polls in the same proportions that were seen in 2008.

As I said, Tim Burns is winning, but it’s still a close race that could go either way. That’s why Tim Burns needs you to send some money his way. Pony up some money,:  : folks,:  : and we can put a conservative in “John Murtha’s Seat.”:  : Now that would be money well spent!

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