First It Was “Kennedy’s Seat.” Is “Murtha’s Seat” Next?

14 Apr, 2010 by John Hawkins

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Things are looking up for Tim Burns, whom : I interviewed a couple of weeks ago.

As you may remember, Tim Burns is going up against Mark Critz, John Murtha’s former:  Chief of:  Staff, in a May 18th special election.

Murtha’s old district is +5 Democratic, but that’s a bit deceptive since the Democrats there are fairly middle-of-the-road. This ain’t San Francisco. In fact, it’s probably not even Massachusetts, where Scott Brown shocked the world by taking “Kennedy’s seat.”

Moreover, with just over a month to go, there’s now a poll out that shows Burns in the lead for the first time:

The following results are from a survey of 400 likely voters completed in Pennsylvania’s 12th

Congressional district by Public Opinion Strategies March 14-15, 2010. The margin of error on the survey is plus or minus 4.9%.

Key points

– Tim Burns currently leads Mark Critz 45%-41% with 13% undecided.

– The President, Congress and the Democratic health care plan are HUGELY unpopular in

this Democratic district:

Approve Disapprove

President Obama 42% 57%

Democratic Congress 33% 65%

Democratic Health Care Plan 30% 64%

How strong is this dynamic? A full one-third (33%) of the electorate are NONRepublicans who disapprove of Congress and disapprove of the health care plan. One-in-four (25%) voters are NON-Republicans who disapprove of the President.

– The voter intensity is on the side of Tim Burns. Burns’ lead widens among those most interested in the election (55%-35%) and those with a history of voting in primaries (53%-33%).

– Despite the Democrats better than two-to-one advantage in voter registration, this conservative district has a history of harboring huge numbers of swing voters:

McCain WON the district with 49% of the vote.

More than half (52%) of the voters attend religious services weekly

58% are pro-lifers

74% are NRA supporters

59% are Tea Party supporters

52% are self-described conservatives

Granted, this is a Republican polling agency and despite the fact that the poll just saw the light of day, it’s about a month old. Still — there are a lot of extremely encouraging numbers in there that go beyond Burns’ small lead.

In special elections, turnout is usually way, way : down. So, when you see that the intensity level is on Burns’ side — big time — and 59% of the district supports the Tea Party, it makes you think Burns voters are going to show up on election day. Moreover, keep in mind that D+5 or not, this is still a district that John McCain won. Since then, the environment has gotten considerably better for Republicans.

But still, you may be saying, “This is just one election. So, why does it matter?” I’ll tell you why: Just imagine the cold lump of fear losing this seat would put in the pit of liberal stomachs. They already lost “Ted Kennedy’s seat” and losing “John Murtha’s seat” on top of it? Wow. Just wow. It would dishearten liberals, fire up conservatives, and I keep thinking back to how much I’d enjoy seeing that same “lost” look in Rachel Maddow’s eyes that was there after Scott Brown won.

Folks, Tim Burns is a fiscal conservative. He unabashedly supports repealing Obamacare. He can drive another stake through the Left’s heart with this victory. He can win this one — but, he needs your support. I hope you’ll give it to him.