A Brief Guide To Iowa And Beyond

03 Jan, 2012 by John Hawkins

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We have no way to know for sure who’ll win in Iowa.

Mitt Romney is the favorite and holding steady. Ron Paul is close behind, but seems to be losing stream. Rick Santorum is behind both, but seems to be surging. Perry and Gingrich, who has had his brains beaten in with an unprecedented wave of negative ads, are both fighting it out for 4th and 5th place.

At this point, whatever happens in Iowa benefits Romney because the only contenders who appear to have the money and organization to compete with him over the long haul are Gingrich and Perry. Of course, if Santorum wins Iowa, he will get a money boost, but he’s a big government conservative who has only been able to rise this far because he hasn’t received much scrutiny. The moment Santorum’s record gets a hard look, his numbers and support will start to fade.

Next up will be New Hampshire. Romney will win there easily and gain another momentum boost.

Then comes South Carolina.

If Mitt picks up enough momentum to win South Carolina, he will also probably win in Florida and be almost impossible to defeat. On the other hand, if Mitt is beaten in South Carolina, then the not-Mitt vote can be consolidated & we’ll have a chance to stop him cold.

Long story short, what this means is that Mitt is about to get a boost, but even if he wins New Hampshire AND Iowa, he’ll only have 12 delegates of the 1,144 delegates he needs for victory and most of the base still isn’t going to want a Charlie Crist clone as the GOP nominee. That means he can still be beaten.

In fact, the only reason Mitt is doing as well as he has already is because the GOP establishment and the mainstream media have anointed Mitt as their preferred candidate; so he’s gotten a pass on the scrutiny that the other top tier contenders have had to endure. So, with that being said, if you want to stop Romney, here’s my suggestion: Start hitting Mitt in the mouth as hard as you can, as often as you can, until he’s bloodied enough for someone to pass him. It has worked with the other candidates and it can work with him, too.

This fight ain’t over until it’s over, and unless he wins South Carolina, Mitt will have just won a couple of early battles, not the war.