Professor Who Predicted Last Five Elections Shocks With Prediction on 2016 [VIDEO]

Professor Who Predicted Last Five Elections Shocks With Prediction on 2016 [VIDEO]

Who will win the election? Voting day is a little over two weeks away and everyone is trying to predict the winner. Polling companies have been predicting a Hillary blowout, but Helmut Norpoth has another prediction. According to Norpoth, Trump will win the 2016 presidential election. And his opinion is one that shouldn’t be disregarded.


Norpoth is a professor at Stony Brook University in New York and he has accurately predicted the results of the last five presidential elections. And he has two “models” to help him make his predictions.

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The first is to compare the performances of the two candidates in the primaries. “The candidate who does better in his party’s primary beats the other guy who does less well,” Norpoth said. It’s here that Trump comes up a winner, as Trump did better in the primary season than Hillary did in states like New Hampshire and South Carolina.

The second model is what he calls “swing of the pendulum.” Basically, this shows that the party who has held the White House for the previous two presidential terms tends to lose. So, Hillary is at a disadvantage there, as there has been a Democrat — Barack Obama — in office for eight years. “I can track that actually for a longer period of time, almost 200 years,” he explained. “That also gives a prediction that Republicans are favored this year.”


The points that Norpoth makes are valid. But will he have another accurate prediction?

In all likelihood, no. Donald Trump will not win the presidential election. It seems clear that this is going to be a massacre of epic proportions. Norpoth is right about the “swing of the pendulum” model and the GOP would have coasted to victory… had they nominated literally anyone but Donald Trump. Instead, they nominated someone with the highest unfavorable ratings ever in history, who has so much baggage and scandal in his past that he makes Hillary Clinton — another extremely disliked candidate — look palatable by comparison.

This could have been the Republicans’ year. And unfortunately, we blew it.

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