The Breakdown At 12:06 On Nov 3

03 Nov, 2004 by John Hawkins

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It’s 12:06 AM folks and here’s how it breaks down. Bush is at 246 with the following states where Bush can still pick up electoral votes….

Ohio (20): Bush 51% vs. 48% with 74% of the vote counted
Michigan (17): Kerry 51% vs. Bush 48% with 36% of the vote counted
Minnesota (10): Kerry 54% vs. Bush 45% with 38% of the vote counted
Wisconsin (10): Kerry 51% vs. Bush 48% with 43% of the vote counted
Iowa (7): Kerry 51% vs. Bush 48% with 56% of the vote counted
New Mexico (5): Bush 51% vs. Kerry 48% with 68% of the vote counted
New Hampshire (4): Kerry 51% vs. Bush with 75% of the vote counted
Nevada (5): Kerry 50% vs. Bush 48% with 4% of the vote counted
Hawaii (4): N/A
Alaska (3): N/A

Nevada and Alaska are basically locks which means if Bush picks up Ohio, it’s over.

*** Update #1 ***: The polls closed in Ohio — what — 5 hours ago? They should be done by now. By the way, from what I’m hearing watch for Kerry to tighten it up a bit more as they count Cuyahoga country and then Bush should be able to pull away as they hit the more Republican counties…

*** Update #2 ***: By the way, I’ve been watching Fox all night and scanning the net and I may note that Fox’s coverage blew because they were sooooooo sloooooow to call states. I know all the networks are doing that because they’d don’t want to pull the trigger too early, but this is ridiculous.

Even when the vote was 100% complete in Jim Bunning’s race, they wouldn’t call it. In Florida, they basically waited right up until the voting was done and Bush won by 5%. I mean, come on. PA was just as ridiculous because Kerry had a huge lead and they simply wouldn’t call it until a couple of hours after it was obvious which way it was going.

There has to be a balance here guys…

*** Update #3 ***: 12:38 — Kerry picks-up New Hampshire (4) from W. I said that state was leaning towards Kerry so it wasn’t a big surprise, but it was so close I was hoping W. could keep it…

*** Update #5 ***: Fox calls Ohio for W! Yes, yes, yes!

*** Update #6 ***: Ok, boys and girls, I’m staying up until they call New Mexico, Nevada, or another state goes for for W and then I’m crashing. But the chances of W winning now? I’d say 99% because W. has 269 once Alaska comes in, but there’s a faithless elector in WV who may not go for Bush and you can’t discount the Dems stealing a close state in the court.

I want a 270+ before I go to bed and I’m going to get it…

*** Update #7 ***: Bush has already got Alaska. He’s at 269…

*** Update #8 ***: Iowa (7), Nevada (5), New Mexico (5) are all looking pretty good for Bush although Iowa may have a small margin.

*** Update #9 ***: 1:38 Kerry takes Minnesota.

*** Update #10 ***: 2:25 Michigan called for Kerry.

*** Update #11 ***: I just can’t help it if they simply refuse to call New Mexico for Bush. Here’s the breakdown of the key states right before I go to bed here at 3 AM….

Ohio (20): Bush 51% vs. Kerry 49% with 97% of the vote counted (125k+ vote margin)
Wisconsin (10): Kerry 50% vs. Bush 49% with 90% of the vote counted
Iowa (7): Bush 50% vs. Kerry 49% with 97% of the vote counted
New Mexico (5): Bush 52% vs. Kerry 47% with 96% of the vote counted
Nevada (5): Bush 50% vs. Kerry 48% with 82% of the vote counted

Bush should pull out Iowa, New Mexico, and Nevada and of course, he has already won Ohio. So that should put the final numbers at Bush 286 vs. Kerry 252.

So if Kerry is going to steal it, he’s going to have to reverse a 100,000+ vote margin in Ohio to do it. The chances of Kerry doing that legitimately are pretty much nil, so if he doesn’t come to his senses and concede, it’s going to get real sleazy, real fast.

Furthermore, once Bush cracks 270, the first thing he should do is declare victory. Then if they try to drag this out, tar the entire Democratic Party with it.

All right, I’m crashing. See you 12-ish EST…